The Optimism Bias… Is Necessary!
Our ability to anticipate what will occur in the future is a characteristic unique to humans and is critical to decision-making. This allows us to prepare our actions so we can avoid harm and gain reward.
When it comes to predicting what will happen to us tomorrow, next week, next month, next year or 10 years from now, we often overestimate the likelihood of positive events, and underestimate the likelihood of negative events.
This is the optimism bias – when expectations are better than reality. The optimism bias is one of the most consistent, prevalent and robust biases documented in psychology and behavioural economics.
- How does the optimism bias work?
The optimism bias is maintained in the face of disconfirming evidence because we update our beliefs more in response to positive information about the future than to negative information about the future. Selectively updating our beliefs in response to positive information, it produces optimism that is resistant to change. In other words, optimism is tied to the failure to update undesirable information regarding the future. Furthermore, optimism relates to a person’s belief in their control over future outcomes.
- Is optimism optimal?
- Why would a healthy brain exhibit mechanisms that create optimistic beliefs?
Many pieces of evidence show that optimism is nonetheless advantageous compared to unbiased predictions. Indeed, the absence of positive expectations of the future is associated with mild depression and anxiety, and both of those are not good for mental health.
It seems like optimistic illusions are the only group of misbeliefs that are adaptive. However, choosing to engage in an act that is rewarding at present but costly in the future can be partially explained by an excess of unrealistic optimism. The harmful influences of over-optimism can extend to collective behaviours and groups… and the extent of unrealistic optimism increases with uncertainty.
- When was the last time you were over-optimistic?
- Was it in a situation of great uncertainty?
Here is the Gold nugget: We tend to show the largest bias in situations with the greatest unknowns… So, next time you find yourself in a situation with lots of unknowns, remember that you are most likely to overestimate the positives in the future… And that can be dangerous. In that instance, it would be wise to look at both sides of the equation to reduce your over-optimism and keep it “realistic”…
With the emergence of conscious foresight – or the ability to imagine one’s future – came the devastating understanding that old age, sickness, a decline of mental power and oblivion await. On its own, this awareness would have definitely interfered with our daily function and maybe even lead us to a stop, if it were not for the evolution of optimistic illusions alongside.
In Nutshell:
The optimism bias appears as an evolutionary process that has evolved as a learning mechanism to mispredict (overestimate the positive) future occurrences because in many cases they lead to better outcomes than do unbiased beliefs… within certain limits of course!
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